Tariffs, Tech & India’s Streaming Sector: Ripple Effects and Opportunities
Trade turbulence may test India’s streaming sector—but also fast-tracks innovation and global creator economy expansion.
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NAB Show 2025 Embraces the Creator Economy
The NAB Show 2025 in Las Vegas has unveiled its core themes, prominently featuring the Creator Economy alongside Artificial Intelligence (AI), Cloud Virtualization, Sports, and Streaming.
We are thrilled to see the Creator Economy taking center stage at this premier event for the broadcasting, media tech, and entertainment industries. This inclusion signifies a pivotal recognition of the transformative impact that independent content creators wield in today's media landscape.
The Creator Economy is challenging traditional norms by:
Self-financing projects: Empowering creators to produce content without reliance on legacy media funding.
Building vast online audiences: Leveraging digital platforms to reach global viewerships.
Attracting brand partnerships: Establishing authentic connections that appeal to modern consumers.
The NAB Show's Creator Lab exemplifies this shift, providing a dedicated space where digital creators can access advanced tools and technologies to enhance their storytelling, expand their audiences, and build their brands.
This evolution underscores the necessity for legacy media institutions to adapt, embracing both technological advancements like AI and the thematic shifts driven by younger audiences deeply invested in creator-led media and entertainment. It's a timely acknowledgment that the future of media is being co-authored by a diverse array of voices, each contributing to a more dynamic and inclusive entertainment ecosystem.
Stay tuned as we continue to explore the intersections of streaming, technology, and the ever-evolving Creator Economy. #pressplay #pressplaycapital
Agenda
Tariffs, Tech & India’s Streaming Sector: Ripple Effects and Opportunities
Cloud Infrastructure Shock: Rising Costs for Streamers
Ad Tech Turbulence & AVOD Economics
NRI Subscribers & Global Recession Risks
Creator Economy: TikTok’s Loss, India’s Gain?
And….Action!
Tariffs, Tech & India’s Streaming Sector: Ripple Effects and Opportunities
The resurgence of Trump-era tariffs on global trade is sending shockwaves through tech and media industries worldwide. While these levies target international trade partners, their indirect tremors could be felt in India’s thriving streaming sector.
From cloud computing costs to advertising spend, diaspora subscriptions to content production, and even the creator economy – Indian OTT (over-the-top) platforms may face new headwinds and openings. In this analysis, we unpack four key areas where tariffs and trade turbulence intersect with India’s streaming landscape, drawing on recent analyses (like Mehtta Ventures Dubai’s “Tariffs, Tech & Turning Points” report) to explore what it all means for businesses on the ground.
1. Cloud Infrastructure Shock: Rising Costs for Streamers
U.S. cloud giants under pressure: Sweeping tariffs imposed on technology imports are driving up the cost of data center hardware in the U.S. In early April, steep duties (a 10% baseline on all imports, with 104% on China, 32% on Taiwan, etc.) were slapped on servers, chips, and other equipment. Analysts note “there’s no doubt that the equipment that goes into data centers will become significantly more expensive” [Economic Times]. Microsoft and Amazon have already signaled more cautious expansion plans for their cloud infrastructure due to these higher. This is a warning sign for any business riding on cheap cloud computing.
India’s OTT reliance on U.S. cloud: Most Indian streaming platforms – from SunNXT to Hoichoi [except for JioHotstar that has a Make in India hosting, content delivery and streaming strategy] – host their apps and content on U.S.-based cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud, Azure). These services power critical workflows:
Compute-intensive tasks like AI-driven content recommendations and user personalization
Video transcoding pipelines to compress and stream shows in multiple bitrates
Content storage and archiving for vast libraries of movies/series
Content delivery networks (CDNs) to serve videos smoothly to millions of viewers
If U.S. cloud providers face higher costs due to tariffs, those costs could trickle down. Tariff complications or retaliatory moves could inflate costs, undermining already razor-thin margins for Indian OTT players
In practical terms, an Indian streamer may see its AWS bills rise for data transfer or GPU instances used for video processing.
Possible responses: Indian platforms will need to watch for price changes in cloud contracts. They might negotiate longer-term deals to lock in rates, optimize their tech stacks for efficiency, or even explore alternative or domestic cloud solutions if feasible. Every extra dollar spent on cloud is a dollar less for content acquisition – so managing this infrastructure cost surge will be key to maintaining subscriber experience without hiking subscription prices.
2. Ad Tech Turbulence & AVOD Economics
Global ad spend slowdown: Tariff-induced uncertainty is casting a shadow on advertising budgets worldwide. Industry forecasts for 2025 have been downgraded – U.S. ad revenue growth is now expected at 3.6% instead of 4.5% [MarketingBrew]
– and major advertiser surveys show why. A stunning 94% of U.S. marketing decision-makers are concerned about tariffs’ impact on ad spending, and 45% plan to reduce their ad spend because of it
In one global forecast, ad spending expectations for 2025 were slashed by nearly $20 billion due to fears of stagflation and recession triggered by tariffs [marketingdive.com]. Key spending categories like automotive, retail, and consumer tech are poised to pull back sharply, which inevitably means fewer advertising dollars chasing inventory on platforms everywhere.
Impact on Indian AVOD and FAST: India’s streaming sector has a large ad-supported component – from AVOD (advertising-funded video on demand) services on OTT apps to emerging FAST (free ad-supported streaming TV) channels. These rely heavily on programmatic ad tech platforms (Google Ad Manager for serving video ads, demand-side platforms like The Trade Desk or DV360 for advertiser bids, and supply-side platforms like Magnite for inventory). If global brands cut ad budgets, Indian publishers could see lower fill rates or CPMs on these channels. For example, a consumer electronics brand in the U.S. or EU tightening its belt might spend less via Google’s ad network, impacts Google’s revenues and profitability having a cascading impact on the overall ecosystem + potentially leading to higher ad serving fees by Google.
Even domestic Indian advertisers might turn cautious if the overall economy feels the pinch.
Ad tech ecosystems under strain: The tariff shock is already “rattling the adtech world”, according to Mehtta Ventures’ analysis
Digital ad markets thrive on growth – when that reverses, adtech firms could face revenue shortfalls. However, LUMA Partners CEO Terence Kawaja sees a silver lining: this downturn may “accelerate M&A” and force down valuations of adtech companies, rewarding bold long-term investors.
In other words, weaker players (e.g. smaller ad networks or data vendors) might get acquired by larger ones, potentially creating a more consolidated and efficient ecosystem when the dust settles. For Indian streaming platforms, any changes in the ad tech landscape – such as consolidation among exchanges or new pricing structures from Google – will be important to monitor. A tighter ad market could also spur innovation in contextual ads, sponsorships, or other non-traditional ad revenues to make up for softer programmatic income.
Bottom line for AVOD: Indian OTTs running on advertising will need to brace for a lean period in ad revenue. They should scenario-plan for, say, a 5–10% dip in ad yields if key advertisers cut back. Diversifying the advertiser base (onboarding more local SMEs, for instance) or ramping up branded content and commerce could help mitigate the downturn.
And if valuations of adtech-related ventures become attractive, it might even be an opportunity for well-capitalized Indian media companies to acquire or invest in tech that gives them more control over monetization.
3. NRI Subscribers & Global Recession Risks
The diaspora lifeline: Non-resident Indians (NRIs) and overseas subcontinent audiences form a crucial segment for many Indian streaming platforms. For some services, international markets like the Middle East contribute up to 25% of total viewership. Key territories such as the UAE, US, UK, Australia, and Canada host large South Asian populations that avidly consume Indian content. Importantly, these overseas users typically pay more – the digital payment ecosystems in those countries are robust, leading to higher ARPUs (average revenue per user) than in India. As one OTT CEO noted, platforms have been able to charge and earn more from audiences abroad than the price-sensitive home market.
In effect, NRIs subscribing to an Indian OTT (for Bollywood movies, cricket, regional language shows, etc.) cross-subsidize growth by bringing in premium revenue.
Recession on the horizon?: The risk here is a global recession triggered by escalating tariffs and trade wars. Investors fear that broad U.S. tariffs will drive up prices and dampen demand worldwide – potentially “leading to a global recession”
If that scenario unfolds, the spending habits of diaspora consumers could change. During economic downturns, households typically reassess “nice-to-have” expenses. We saw hints of this in recent years’ inflation squeeze, where consumers started trimming their subscription counts to save money. An Indian-American family in Dallas or a tech worker in Dubai might decide to cancel one of their streaming subscriptions if finances tighten – especially if they subscribe to multiple services (say Netflix, Amazon Prime, and an Indian OTT on top). Indian SVOD services could be the first to go if they are seen as non-essential compared to local utilities or global platforms.
SVOD strategy under scrutiny: Indian streamers targeting NRIs will need to double down on value to prevent churn. This could mean offering discounted annual plans, bundling services, or highlighting exclusive content that NRIs can’t get elsewhere (e.g. local language news or niche regional films). They may also shift focus slightly to diaspora segments that are more resilient – for instance, targeting high-income NRIs or focusing on markets with stable outlooks. Additionally, if a recession does hit, the relative strength of the U.S. dollar could actually increase the converted value of overseas subscription revenue (since many platforms ultimately account revenue in INR). That might cushion some blow in rupee terms, even if absolute subscriber numbers stall.
On the flip side, a global slowdown might push more Indians abroad to seek affordable entertainment at home, which could mean free content via AVOD or YouTube – a challenge for SVOD. It’s a delicate balance: nurture the loyal overseas user base, but prepare for some turbulence if worldwide consumer sentiment sours.
4. Creator Economy: TikTok’s Loss, India’s Gain?
TikTok under fire in the U.S.: The world of short-form video is another arena where global politics creates an opening. TikTok, the wildly popular app owned by China’s ByteDance, has faced intense U.S. scrutiny over data security. Now, that scrutiny is escalating into action. In a landmark move, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a law effectively banning TikTok unless it’s sold to an American entity
As things stand, TikTok’s future in the U.S. is in jeopardy – the company even instructed staff to prepare for a full shutdown of the app for U.S. users [skift.com]
For context, TikTok has over 150 million monthly users in America, so a ban would leave a huge vacuum in the social media and influencer landscape.
Indian apps can eye expansion?: This scenario is uniquely reminiscent of what happened in India itself. Back in mid-2020, India banned TikTok, and in the aftermath, a crop of homegrown short-video platforms like Moj (by ShareChat), Josh (by VerSe Innovation), and others quickly rose to fill the void. They captured TikTok’s orphaned user base by offering similar features with an Indian twist. Now the question is: could history repeat itself in the U.S.? If TikTok is indeed barred, American users (and creators, and advertisers) will seek alternatives. While Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts will surely absorb much of the demand, there might be room for a new standalone player – one that isn’t burdened by the Meta/Google ecosystem. ShareChat, Josh, or other Indian contenders could try to step into this breach. They have the advantage of experience: they’ve already scaled to tens of millions of users in India, battle-tested against TikTok before. They also are backed by major investors (Google and Temasek in ShareChat’s case, for example), potentially giving them resources to internationalize.
Challenges and angle of attack: Entering the U.S. won’t be easy – the market is mature and user expectations are high. But Indian apps might carve a niche by focusing on communities under-served by Reels/Shorts. One strategy could be to target the South Asian diaspora in the West as an initial beachhead. An app like Moj could launch in the U.S. highlighting Desi creators, Bollywood music, and cross-cultural content that appeals to young Indian-Americans (a demographic TikTok also had a strong hold on). From there, it could broaden its appeal to Gen Z at large, pitching itself as a fresh, independent alternative at a time when TikTok is gone and some users might not want everything folded into Instagram. The FAST lesson (from the streaming world) applies here too: when a giant exits, others can swoop in with specialized offerings.
There’s also a geopolitical selling point: an Indian app might be seen as safer or more aligned with U.S. interests than a Chinese one, easing regulators’ and users’ minds. For example, if ShareChat can loudly proclaim data residency in the U.S. and a commitment to transparency, it might win goodwill. And for India, seeing one of its social media startups expand into a Western market would be a proud moment – a reverse flow of innovation.
Monetization matters: If these apps do venture out, they will also connect back to our earlier points. To monetize in the U.S., they’ll rely on global ad tech and creator monetization – which, as discussed, are in flux due to macro conditions. But a reduced field (with TikTok out) could actually mean more ad budget for the remaining players. It’s conceivable that a Josh or Moj could strike deals with U.S. advertisers hungry for TikTok-like reach. We might even see partnerships; e.g., YouTube or Snap could acquire or partner with an Indian app to bolster their short-video dominance. All in all, TikTok’s troubles could give the Indian creator economy a chance to go global, turning a macro geopolitical shift into a strategic expansion opportunity.
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